Koerner's Playoff Props For Divisional Round Sunday


Sean Koerner — our Director of Predictive Analytics — reveals his favorite NFL player props for Divisional Round Sunday of the 2022 NFL playoffs. Find out which Tom Brady and Mecole Hardman props he’s betting in Rams-Bucs and Bills-Chiefs below.

Note that Koerner’s picks are based on his projections, which can be found in our Action Labs Props Tool. He also has a 535-422-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.

» Sean Koerner’s Spread + Total Picks «

NFL Playoff Props

Tom Brady Under 294.5 Pass Yards

3 p.m. ET kickoff

Even if Bucs right tackle Tristan Wirfs and center Ryan Jensen are upgraded from questionable to active, they likely won’t be 100%, which means Brady could opt for a quick passing attack like he did last week with a 2.17 time to throw and low 4.6 aDot.

Leonard Fournette’s return will also allow the Bucs to run more.

I’m projecting Brady for closer to 284.5 yards.

Bet to: 290.5

Mecole Hardman Under 30.5 Rec Yards

6:30 p.m. ET kickoff

Hardman saw a boost in usage over the past couple games with Tyreek Hill injured, but I expect Hardman’s routes run to drop back into the 40-50% range with Hill closer to 100%. It’s also going to be difficult for Hardman to clear this total if his low aDot trend continues (2.7 and 1.0 over past two games).

I’m projecting Hardman for closer to 25.5 yards, but every yard in this range is worth 5-8%, so be sure to shop for the best number.

Bet to: 30.5

What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?

Bets on a player’s statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback’s passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver’s number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.

To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.