LAD vs. NYM, Aug. 15: Odds, preview, prediction


Brad Cunningham/Action contributor

A version of this article originally appeared on the Action Network. For more betting insights, check outActionNetwork.com.

Time: Sunday, 7:08 p.m. ET

Odds as of Sunday and via FanDuel NJ.

The Dodgers have been hitting the ball well over the past month, putting up a .328 wOBA and 108 wRC+. Adding Trea Turner now gives the Dodgers lineup an embarrassment of riches because Turner has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season with a .316 batting average, .372 wOBA, and 4.2 WAR.

The Dodgers will have a favorable matchup against Carlos Carrasco because they’ve been crushing right handed pitching (.329 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 159 HRs), and they have positive run values against Carrasco’s top three pitches of slider, sinker, and fastball.

The Mets offense has gotten somewhat healthy and has been improving. Over the last 30 days they have been hitting the ball well with a .323 wOBA and 105 wRC+. Pete Alonso has been the catalyst, hitting 8 HRs and driving in 16 runs over that timespan as well. 

The matchup against Max Scherzer is going to be a difficult one for the Mets because they do not hit right-handed pitching well (.302 wOBA & 92 wRC+), but they also have negative run values against all of Scherzer’s pitches.

Even at age 37, Max Scherzer is still pitching outstanding. He has 3.17 xERA, opponents are only hitting .184 against him, and also has a 0.89 WHIP. Even though Scherzer is getting up there in age, he still hasn’t lost much velocity on his fastball, sitting around a 94 mph average. Its been pretty effective too because opponents only have a .192 expected batting average against it this season.

However, Scherzer’s best two pitches have by far been his slider and changeup. Both pitches are allowing an wOBA under .205 and are producing a whiff rate over 30%. The Mets have a combined -15.1 run value a gains those two pitches, so I expect him to go to those a lot tonight.

Carlos Carrasco returned from a torn hamstring on July 30th and has only made three starts in 2021 since coming over from Cleveland. His first two starts were decent, but his last start against Washington only lasted one inning, as he gave up four runs.

Carrasco had a solid year in 2020, posting a 3.79 xERA and 3.65 xFIP. All of his pitches were pretty effective, but his slider was by far his best pitch. Opposing hitters have managed only a .177 average against it, and it’s produced a 36.7% whiff rate.

The Dodgers are one of the best fastball and changeup hitting teams in baseball, so he may need to utilize that slider a lot tonight.

This will be a matchup of two of the best bullpens in Major League Baseball. The Mets and Dodgers bullpens are top ten in ERA, xFIP, K/9 rate, BB/9 rate, and LOB%. So, the difference in this game will likely be from the offensive or starting pitching matchup.

Even though this isn’t that great of a matchup for the Mets, I think the Dodgers are a little overpriced.

Carrasco’s projections have him still rated as sub 3.5 ERA type pitcher, so along with having one of the best bullpens in baseball, I think the Mets are providing some value on Sunday Night Baseball at +152 (FanDuel) and I would play it down to +145.